Cannes Lions 2009 - Adland's winning bets - what are yours?

Adgrunts, start your guessing machines, lay the money down in the betting pools - who will win what in Cannes?

These are the campaigns that have stood out in the past year,

The Great Schlep at thegreatshlep.com.

Conceived by Droga5, directed by Wayne McClammy now at Hungry Man, and shot in comedian Sarah Silverman's apartment the great shlep was so much like a comedy skit that it traversed all the video sites on the web, including "Funny or Die" and was sent around by countless webheads. Proof that a good idea and the right talent can crank out the funny & effective on no budget at all, it has already won a coveted Black Pencil at the 2009 D&AD awards. Black pencils are rare - this might grab the titanium lion. Wayne was no stranger to funny or Sarah, he's the one who shot her "I'm fucking Matt damon" skit.

Politics was a big thing last year, obviously, and the Obama Campaign was on twitter, on youtube, on the streets and in paid media, trying all sorts of new things including airing a half hour commercial. The look of the campaign was as carefully thought out as the message, with what SpeakUp dubbed "the hardest working presidential candidate logo" by Chicago-based Sender LLC and mo/de, and former street artist Fairey creating iconic posters and the cover of Time magazine (Nevermind that lawsuit). Can you think of a more integrated campaign last year? I dare you. I double dare you.

Commercials - my god, it's all over the map this year isn't it? We don't have two jawdroppingly strong ads top of mind like we did last year, when both Gorilla and Believe shared top honors, instead there's a whole bunch of ads that are very popular but are they worthy of a gold or grand prix material?
Arnet One Million Users kinda funny, especially for us adgeeks, and T-mobiles Dance entertained the masses. Some are rooting for LED Sheep which I personally think looks like the CGI was hammered out on an Atari, just because it had so many views online - but this isn't a competition in number of ewhtube hits is it? Don't forget Cadbury's eyebrow dance. Yep, it's wiiiide open.

Outdoor: Share our Billboard (web) and the billboard from James Ready & Leo Burnett Canada has a shot at shiny lions, and I also think that Substral Fertilizer - Tree Poster has a shot at at least silver. Basically, expect to see many more than-just-paper billboards winning this year.

Print - oh dear, what will win print? Scrabble sliced anagrams took a silver at the Clios, will it do better in Cannes?

Interactive: Whopper Sacrifice because we all love to rat out on our friends (and CP+B), right? No? I'm sure there are better ones here, actually, Uniqlo's Tokyo Fashion map is spot on for it's target.

Your turn, who do you think should win and what might win? Big Hat tip to Adgrunt Jasper and Holger Wilcks for discussing the potentials with me.