Death of the 30-Second Commercial

TV commercials are at risk within four years

A recent Yankee Group press release identifies a subject worth looking into if skipping commercials is a future concern. Their report, "Death of the 30-Second Commercial," notes that Penetration of PVRs (personal video recorder - there's a sad acronym) remains low, with less than 2 percent of U.S. homes owning one, but the growth rate is rising. The report evaluates the threat of PVRs, analyzes the prospects for television advertising, and appraises potential solutions for programmers and advertisers.

Adi Kishore, Yankee Group Media & Entertainment Strategies analyst, forecasts that 19.1 million homes will have PVRs by year-end 2006, and by 2007, nearly one-fifth of all U.S. homes will be able to fast-forward TV commercials.

Report findings include:

PVR penetration will grow to almost 20 percent of U.S. homes in less than four years.

The advertising industry will feel the impact in mid-to-late 2005 when PVR penetration grows to 10 million subscribers.

Programmers must drive this transition or risk losing out to other media channels.

"Guerilla" branding initiatives will be necessary as different creative products are required for different television advertising formats.
Changes in advertising paradigms will give rise to a new breed of cross-functional experts.

Privacy will be a critical issue for PVR downloads and targeted advertising.

Despite changes in the industry, the 30-second spot will remain the most widely used television-advertising format for the next five years.

Source : Center for Media Research and The Yankee Group